--- title: Why is the leaf appearance (LER) rate going in the wrong direction? description: Understanding what drives the leaf emergence model will help you understand why it can sometimes predict an abnormal LER. --- [Skip to content](https://help.pasture.io/why-is-the-leaf-appearance-rate-going-in-the-wrong-direction#main-content) English Show submenu for translations [![Pasture.io](https://help.pasture.io/hs-fs/hubfs/logo%20square.jpg?width=100&height=75&name=logo%20square.jpg)](https://pasture.io/) Open main navigation Close main navigation - English Show submenu for translations How can we help you? - There are no suggestions because the search field is empty. 1. [Help Center](https://help.pasture.io/?hsLang=en) 2. [Application Usage](https://help.pasture.io/application-usage?hsLang=en) 3. [Farm Dashboard](https://help.pasture.io/application-usage?hsLang=en#farm-dashboard) # Why is the leaf appearance (LER) rate going in the wrong direction? ## Understanding what drives the leaf emergence model will help you understand why it can sometimes predict an abnormal LER. The LER in Pasture.io not only calculates each day the LER, but it also supplies a rolling 14-day forecast. The models ingest a lot of data and most of that data is procured. Weather is one such source and is the largest driver for the LER. Leaf appearance rate is influenced by weather data and modelled growth conditions. If it looks unusual, it may be due to changing weather inputs, forecast updates, or local conditions (see below for futher explanation). Use it as a guide alongside pasture cover, grazing history, and your own farm knowledge. **Just look at the 14-day rolling forecast for the Leaf Emergence below:** ![Leaf appearance model showing the 14-day forecast going awry ](https://help.pasture.io/hubfs/CleanShot%202021-09-17%20at%2016-20-11@2x-png.png) Now, if we pull up one of the weather sources that feed the LER model, we can see that there is an anomaly in the weather data we are receiving from one of the suppliers. ![](https://help.pasture.io/hubfs/CleanShot%202021-09-17%20at%2016-23-28@2x-png.png) The best thing we can do is sit tight for a few days or more and ride out what is being reported. 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