Why is the leaf appearance (LER) rate going in the wrong direction?

Understanding what drives the leaf emergence model will help you understand why it can sometimes predict an abnormal LER.

The LER in Pasture.io is one of a kind in the entire world. It not only calculates each day the LER, but it also supplies a rolling 14-day forecast.

The models ingest a lot of data and most of that data is procured. Weather is one such source and is the largest driver for the LER.

When our weather suppliers feed us the data, sometimes they hit snags in their own models which then feeds into the LER.

Just look at the 14-day rolling forecast for the Leaf Emergence below:

Leaf appearance model showing the 14-day forecast going awry

Now, if we pull up one of the weather sources that feed the LER model, we can see that there is an anomaly in the weather data we are receiving from one of the suppliers.

The best thing we can do is sit tight for a few days or more and ride out what is being reported. Thankfully, the LER is more about the long term trend than a knee-jerk reaction.